{
  "_comment": "Survey series are nominal dollars per child per year in that child's primary sport, from the Aspen/Utah State parent-survey waves. frame_flag marks the fall-2022 wave, which used a TeamSnap app-user sample that Aspen itself cautions against comparing to 2019/2024 - charted as open markers. Sports with a single point get no line and no CAGR; that absence is reported, not interpolated.",
  "headline": {
    "avg_2019": 693,
    "avg_2024": 1016
  },
  "combined_base_year": 2019,
  "context_series": [
    {
      "id": "avg",
      "name": "All sports (survey avg.)",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 693,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "nominal": 883,
          "source": "aspen2022",
          "frame_flag": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "nominal": 1016,
          "source": "aspen2024"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "basketball",
      "name": "Basketball (context)",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 427,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "nominal": 1002,
          "source": "aspen2022",
          "frame_flag": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "nominal": 876,
          "source": "aspen2024"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "tackle_football",
      "name": "Tackle football (context)",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 485,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "nominal": 634,
          "source": "aspen2024"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "flag_football",
      "name": "Flag football (context)",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 268,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "nominal": 444,
          "source": "aspen2024"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sports": [
    {
      "id": "soccer",
      "name": "Soccer",
      "confidence": "solid",
      "confidence_reason": "Three survey waves (2019, 2022, 2024), though the 2022 wave used a different sampling frame.",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 537,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "nominal": 1188,
          "source": "aspen2022",
          "frame_flag": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "nominal": 910,
          "source": "aspen2024"
        }
      ],
      "events": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "year_label": "2019",
          "label": "Juggernaut Capital backs 3STEP Sports",
          "source": "threestep"
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "year_label": "Dec 2023",
          "label": "3STEP acquires EDP Soccer \u2014 largest US youth-league owner-operator",
          "source": "threestep"
        }
      ],
      "range_note": "Rec (AYSO): ~$120\u2013$265/season. Club: published fees $2,494\u2013$4,200/yr (Columbia Premier, West Side Alliance, SF Glens) before travel; all-in travel estimates $2,600\u2013$10,500, ECNL/MLS NEXT $8,000\u2013$15,000+ (thin sourcing). MLS pro academies are free.",
      "gaps": "No club preserves historical fee schedules publicly, so the survey series is the only price history. The 2022 point (open marker) came from a TeamSnap app-user sample Aspen cautions against comparing.",
      "verdict": "above",
      "verdict_note": "Real spending rose ~38% 2019\u21922024 \u2014 clearly above inflation. The 3STEP league roll-up came late in that window; the increase predates it.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 158,
        "equipment": 125,
        "travel": 107,
        "lessons": 66,
        "camps": 73
      },
      "hours_2019": 10.8
    },
    {
      "id": "baseball",
      "name": "Travel baseball",
      "confidence": "solid",
      "confidence_reason": "Three survey waves plus the best same-organization fee series found in any sport (Cooperstown Dreams Park).",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 660,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "nominal": 714,
          "source": "aspen2022",
          "frame_flag": true
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "nominal": 1113,
          "source": "aspen2024"
        }
      ],
      "events": [
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "year_label": "2022",
          "label": "Harris/Blitzer buy Cooperstown All Star Village ($116M)",
          "source": "unrivaled"
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "year_label": "Mar 2024",
          "label": "Unrivaled Sports launches (Ripken Baseball, All Star Village)",
          "source": "unrivaled"
        }
      ],
      "range_note": "Rec (Little League): ~$85\u2013$300/season. Travel: team fees $1,000\u2013$6,000/yr, tournament-heavy all-in $8,000\u2013$10,000 (thin). Cooperstown natural experiment: family-owned Dreams Park went $995 (2019) \u2192 $1,295/player (2024\u201326), +30%; PE-owned All Star Village went $1,295 (2021, pre-acquisition form) \u2192 ~$1,395 (2026), +7.7% \u2014 below inflation, though a new ~$262 facility fee erodes some of that.",
      "gaps": "The All Star Village comparison base year (2021) was a COVID-affected season, and Unrivaled added new fee lines (facility fee, higher team umpire fee) that a package-price comparison understates.",
      "verdict": "above",
      "verdict_note": "Real spending rose ~37% 2019\u21922024, the most expensive of the three most-played sports. But the Cooperstown before/after cuts against the PE story: the independent park raised prices +30% while the PE-owned one raised its package just +7.7%.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 166,
        "equipment": 121,
        "travel": 175,
        "lessons": 106,
        "camps": 100
      },
      "hours_2019": 13.4
    },
    {
      "id": "cheer",
      "name": "Competitive cheer",
      "confidence": "anecdotal",
      "confidence_reason": "No national survey has ever published a cheer spending figure. All price data is gym-level or litigation-derived.",
      "series": [],
      "range_chart": [
        {
          "tier": "Rec / school season",
          "low": 300,
          "high": 1000,
          "source": "cheer_gym_fees"
        },
        {
          "tier": "All-star all-in (yr)",
          "low": 5000,
          "high": 10000,
          "source": "cheer_gym_fees"
        }
      ],
      "events": [
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "year_label": "2014",
          "label": "Charlesbank buys Varsity (~$1.5B)",
          "source": "varsity_deals"
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "year_label": "2018",
          "label": "Bain Capital buys Varsity (~$2.5B)",
          "source": "varsity_deals"
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "year_label": "2024",
          "label": "KKR buys Varsity (~$4.75B)",
          "source": "varsity_deals"
        }
      ],
      "range_note": "Gym-published: season tuition $1,595\u2013$2,145 + competition fees $1,050\u2013$1,200 (Champions Cheer); entries $100\u2013$200/athlete regional, $400\u2013$650 nationals; uniforms up to $1,000.",
      "gaps": "The sport with the strongest private-equity story has the weakest price data, now primary-verified in both waves: 2019 had 21 cheer respondents (grouped under 'Other sports'); 2024 had 58 cheer-primary athletes - below the six-sport breakout. Varsity's own event-fee history is sealed in litigation records. Closest published comparator: dance, at $2,048/yr in 2024, the costliest sport Aspen broke out.",
      "verdict": "unknown",
      "verdict_note": "Litigation evidence (two settlements totaling $126M, stay-to-play rebates of ~$4M/yr in court records) is consistent with above-competitive pricing, but no public price series can quantify it."
    },
    {
      "id": "gymnastics",
      "name": "Gymnastics",
      "confidence": "thin",
      "confidence_reason": "One national survey point (2019). Current fee schedules exist; no history.",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 1580,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        }
      ],
      "events": [],
      "range_note": "Rec classes $132\u2013$155/mo at named gyms; competitive team all-in from ~$5,000/yr (compulsory levels) to $20,000+/yr at Levels 9\u201310 (parent-reported, anecdotal). USA Gymnastics membership $20\u2013$54/yr.",
      "gaps": "4th most expensive sport in the 2019 survey, then never published again - the 2024 wave had 54 gymnastics-primary athletes, below Aspen's six-sport breakout (primary-verified). USA Gymnastics raised 2025-26 sanction fees citing insurance costs - a documented non-PE cost driver. PE presence is embryonic (Powers Gymnastics roll-up, ~$17M Series A).",
      "verdict": "unknown",
      "verdict_note": "One data point. The documented cost pressure here is liability insurance, not ownership.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 152,
        "equipment": 111,
        "travel": 763,
        "lessons": 422,
        "camps": 104
      },
      "hours_2019": 9.7
    },
    {
      "id": "swim",
      "name": "Swimming",
      "confidence": "thin",
      "confidence_reason": "One national survey point (2019); federation fee history only partial.",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 786,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        }
      ],
      "events": [],
      "range_note": "Club dues $1,800\u2013$4,800/yr (Santa Clara SC $225\u2013$300/mo) plus meet fees ($2\u2013$13/event). USA Swimming athlete fee $62 (2020) \u2192 $70 (2024\u201325) \u2014 roughly flat in real terms; but club-level dues to the federation jump $70 \u2192 $225/yr in Sept 2025 (+221%), the first increase since at least 1990.",
      "gaps": "No survey point after 2019 - the 2024 wave had only 34 swim-primary athletes, too few to publish (primary-verified). PE consolidation exists only in learn-to-swim schools (Streamline/SafeSplash), not competitive club swimming, which remains mostly nonprofit - a useful structural contrast.",
      "verdict": "unknown",
      "verdict_note": "One data point. Federation athlete fees tracked below inflation through 2024; the 2025 club-dues hike lands after the survey window.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 116,
        "equipment": 59,
        "travel": 388,
        "lessons": 154,
        "camps": 68
      },
      "hours_2019": 11.2
    },
    {
      "id": "hockey",
      "name": "Ice hockey",
      "confidence": "thin",
      "confidence_reason": "One survey point (2019) \u2014 the $2,583 figure still recycled by 2024\u201326 press \u2014 but the best independent fee series of any sport (registration-platform data, 2015\u20132025).",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 2583,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        }
      ],
      "events": [
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "year_label": "2021",
          "label": "Black Bear reaches 27 rinks",
          "source": "blackbear"
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "year_label": "2024",
          "label": "Kensington rink bought; ice rate $320\u2192$370/hr; Black Bear TV paywall",
          "source": "usatoday_blackbear"
        }
      ],
      "range_note": "House league $400\u2013$1,200; AA $3,000\u2013$5,500; AAA registration $5,000\u2013$14,000, all-in $11,500\u2013$24,650 (guides, thin). Registration-platform data (PlayMetrics/Crossbar): 2025 avg club fee $7,055 AAA / $2,448 AA \u2014 +36.4% and +62.6% since 2015. USA Hockey national fee $70 \u2192 $89 (+27%) in three seasons.",
      "gaps": "The most expensive sport in the 2019 survey was never re-surveyed: the 2024 wave had only 16 hockey-primary athletes of 1,848 - too few to publish (primary-verified). The $2,583 figure recycled by 2024-26 press is 2019 data. Note the twist in the fee data: the elite AAA tier rose roughly with inflation over the decade; the mid-tier AA/A rose nearly twice as fast.",
      "verdict": "above",
      "verdict_note": "Fee-schedule evidence: AA/A club fees +62.6% 2015\u20132025 vs all-items CPI up roughly a third \u2014 clearly above inflation. Also the clearest verified PE before/after: +15.6% ice-rental at a rink within months of acquisition.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 634,
        "equipment": 389,
        "travel": 829,
        "lessons": 389,
        "camps": 302
      },
      "hours_2019": 10.0
    },
    {
      "id": "golf",
      "name": "Golf",
      "confidence": "thin",
      "confidence_reason": "One survey point (2019), but an unusually good federation fee history (AJGA, 2011\u20132025).",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 925,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        }
      ],
      "events": [],
      "range_note": "Entry programs are cheap: First Tee $50\u2013$195/season, PGA Jr. League $120/yr. Competitive: lessons $80\u2013$120/hr, AJGA all-in $1,000\u2013$3,000/yr. Counter-example: AJGA tournament entry was $280 in 2011 and $280\u2013$295 today, with membership fees cut ~10% in 2022 \u2014 flat-to-down for 15 years, sponsor-subsidized (~70/30).",
      "gaps": "No survey point after 2019 - the 2024 wave had only 15 golf-primary athletes, too few to publish (primary-verified). PE money in golf (>$5B recently) targets adult courses and entertainment venues, not junior competition - which shows fee restraint under a sponsorship model.",
      "verdict": "counter",
      "verdict_note": "The clearest counter-example: junior tournament golf fees have been flat-to-down since 2011 \u2014 a large real-terms decline.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 81,
        "equipment": 364,
        "travel": 238,
        "lessons": 88,
        "camps": 113
      },
      "hours_2019": 9.3
    },
    {
      "id": "lacrosse",
      "name": "Lacrosse",
      "confidence": "thin",
      "confidence_reason": "One national survey point (2019); current club fee schedules; no fee history.",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 1289,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        }
      ],
      "events": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "year_label": "2019",
          "label": "3STEP begins lacrosse roll-up (Aloha Tournaments et al.)",
          "source": "threestep"
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "year_label": "2021",
          "label": "3STEP adds HoganLax, NXT Sports",
          "source": "threestep"
        }
      ],
      "range_note": "Rec/town $50\u2013$300/season + $35 USA Lacrosse membership. Club: dues $2,500\u2013$7,000/yr, all-in $5,000\u2013$10,000 (parent-documented log). Equipment is the signature cost: $600\u2013$1,000 to outfit a club player.",
      "gaps": "Lacrosse was 3STEP's first roll-up sport - and no before/after pricing at any acquired club has entered the public record. One national survey point (2019); the 2024 wave had only 13 lacrosse-primary athletes, too few to publish (primary-verified).",
      "verdict": "unknown",
      "verdict_note": "One data point, and the PE-effect question is untestable with public data \u2014 the gap itself is the finding.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 411,
        "equipment": 280,
        "travel": 281,
        "lessons": 68,
        "camps": 231
      },
      "hours_2019": 14.2
    },
    {
      "id": "tennis",
      "name": "Tennis",
      "confidence": "thin",
      "confidence_reason": "One national survey point (2019); tier ranges are market-guide quality.",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 1170,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        }
      ],
      "events": [
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "year_label": "2023",
          "label": "IMG Academy \u2192 BPEA EQT ($1.25B)",
          "source": "img_deal"
        }
      ],
      "range_note": "USTA junior membership is free; sanctioned entries capped ~$47. The money is court time ($40\u2013$100/hr indoor) and coaching ($60\u2013$150/hr); competitive-track all-in guides run $10,000\u2013$40,000/yr (weakly sourced). Elite anchor: IMG boarding $86,400 (2023) \u2192 ~$93,900 (2025).",
      "gaps": "Thinnest data of any sport here: one survey point, and only 31 tennis-primary athletes in the 2024 wave (primary-verified). No club-level roll-up exists - PE entered at the academy layer (IMG) only, since an individual sport with public courts offers no league to consolidate.",
      "verdict": "unknown",
      "verdict_note": "One data point. Structure suggests why PE skipped it: nothing to roll up.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 115,
        "equipment": 122,
        "travel": 352,
        "lessons": 471,
        "camps": 95
      },
      "hours_2019": 8.8
    },
    {
      "id": "volleyball",
      "name": "Club volleyball",
      "confidence": "thin",
      "confidence_reason": "One national survey point (2019: $595.49, verified in the primary Utah State report); nothing after.",
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "nominal": 595,
          "source": "aspen2019"
        }
      ],
      "events": [
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "year_label": "2019",
          "label": "3STEP volleyball acquisitions begin (Front Range VBC)",
          "source": "threestep"
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "year_label": "Nov 2024",
          "label": "LOVB raises $100M (Atwater/Ares); 58 clubs",
          "source": "lovb"
        }
      ],
      "range_note": "Club season $3,000\u2013$5,000 typical; national/travel teams $4,000\u2013$6,000 before player travel (Cincy Crush: $1,650 regional tier). Qualifier entries ~$1,000/team plus stay-to-play: ~15 room-nights minimum booked through official housing or the team forfeits its spot.",
      "gaps": "Heavy consolidation (3STEP, LOVB's 77-location network) with essentially no public price history to test it against: one survey point in 2019, and only 58 volleyball-primary athletes in the 2024 wave, below the six-sport breakout threshold (primary-verified).",
      "verdict": "unknown",
      "verdict_note": "The stay-to-play mechanics are well documented; their price effect is not. No usable series.",
      "mix_2019": {
        "registration": 242,
        "equipment": 66,
        "travel": 170,
        "lessons": 53,
        "camps": 54
      },
      "hours_2019": 12.8
    }
  ]
}